Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
